There are three types of punters regarding systems and during this piece I will refer to each in passing.
- Those that use systems, lose with systems and think they work.
- Those that have used systems, didn't win and don't accept that they can work.
- Those that have a system, win, won't tell, and are not believed to be credible!
In the most disparaging of fashion, I
can testify that those punters that fall into categories 1 & 2
don't know what they are doing, and those in No3 do, but can't prove
it.
I can not even begin to estimate the
time and effort I have put in over the years in trying to find a "Golden
Egg" system to beat the odds in Horse Racing. Even as I type this
piece, I have a pice of software running in the background on this very
laptop, collating thousands of bits (or is it Bytes?), of information
from every Nursery run in the month of September for the past 11 years.
It is assessing every runner, in every race distance. At the same time,
it is also looking at every 3yo only handicap at every distance between
5f and 12f, and the same again for every 3yo+ handicap over the same
distances. Once complete, and this will take a very powerful
computer,something in the region of 8 hours to complete, I will have a
data set of literally millions of cells of information, which I will
filter and play around with for many many hours before deciding on what
the strategy will be for the coming month.
I do this every month, and I do it every
year. For what may end up taking me something between 12-24 hours to
complete, I may find one or two worthwhile bets to be struck, I may find
twenty. It's a lot of work for little action. That's the biggest
problem with systems. THEY ARE BORING!
Because they are boring, many people you
ask, "Systems, do they work?", will answer No2. The reason they do not
believe they work is because they have looked at a system but don't
understand the system. Don't understand probability and don't have the
patience to see a system through.
I wonder how many people have started a
system, whether it be a simple one such horses considered best drawn
over 6f that are also Racing Post predicted favourite, or more
complicated in using the second favourite in the Daily Mirror if the
main Tipster has gone for it and it has previous course winning form.
Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is, they all have
credence if followed for a certain amount of time. I have no idea if
either of the aforementioned ideas would work, I haven't checked. (if
you want to try them, feel free, just mail me 10% if they turn out to be
gooduns!) The main reason punter number two exists is because he wants a
system that will provide instant results, instant profits and big ones
at that! Well don't we all? But it doesnt work that way. Sure, systems
are born from a single idea, but they are very plant like in that they
need time investment (as well as cash), time to nurture, develop and
"create" your winning system. They also have a lifespan and die. But
more of that later.
The single most frequent reason for
system failure is lack of patience. You've come up with a great idea.
You've researched it and back tested it against previous results. You've
come across the perfect system that can't fail to provide big profits,
it's proven. So you go to work and back the very next qualifier; LOSE! And the next, LOSE!
And the next and the next and you get the picture. You're average
punter does not have the patience to back four losers, hell he may not
have the bank after thinking he has stumbled upon the pot at the end of
the rainbow, so the system is destined for the trash and the next
qualifier isn't bet. You know what happens, BANG! WINNER 10/1! So he bets the next, LOSER!
And the system is forgotten. The maths ignored. (this example at single
point level stakes has provided 6 clear points and over 100% return on
investment), but these numbers are lost on our punter. He is out of
pocket and scanning the paper for a DEAD CERT favourite
to recoup the losses. You know what I'm talking about, and if you have
been a punter for any length of time you know how it feels. If you
don't, you're in denial!
You've checked the system over hundred
of previous qualifiers, races and bets and it worked. You've
experimented with it in real life for only a handful of bets. Did you
even realise that within your back tested results, there are losing runs
of four, five even six runners. Do you know what the strike rate of
your system is, do you know what level of return on investment to
expect? Do you know the average price of not only the qualifiers, but
the ones that actually win? You have to give your system time, and you
have to understand it's idiosyncrasies. Every single little aspect of
your system. You also have to know, you're not going to be running
around in a Ferrari with a beach-fronted house in the background any
time soon off the back of your system, like the guys in the adverts
selling them are. They are not really, and you never will be. Sorry.
Systems are a fun and interesting way of
betting for number crunching gambling geeks. (like me!). They are
boring, almost hobby like. Systems can be winners too. But profits will
be slow and steady at best. That brings me on to number 3 answer.
If you find a system that is a winner, DONT TELL ANYONE.
The absolute essence of a system is that it has a strike rate at odds
that beat the probability set out and given by the bookmaker. It will be
small edge, but an edge all the same. And here comes your biggest
enemy in systematic betting.
ODDS CHANGE - YOUR SELECTION PROCESS DOESN'T
That's right. It is the foremost reason
why systems are perceived to not work and often don't or eventually
fail. Your selection process is set out at Point A, and never changes,
but markets and odds change to account for such things. The easiest way
to influence a market is to throw money at it. Throw too much at it, and
the odds change, your small edge has now disappeared for ever and you
wont get it back. The more people you share your winning system with,
the quicker their money will turn it into a losing system by affecting
the odds you can get.
So. If you find a winning system that
you want to keep, keep it to yourself. Herein lies the next problem, (if
you consider systematic winning selections a problem!). When you tell
people you have a winning system, THEY WON'T BELIEVE YOU
unless you prove it to them. You prove it and kill your system. You
don't prove it and continue winning and they think you're a liar. Hey
Ho. It is ironic to say you can't win. So don't mention it at all, and
you win all round.
The one thing you will have to do though
is not only keep it a secret, but make your system your best friend
too. Know everything about it. Know how it performs at different times
of year, or going conditions, or whether certain trainers are better or
worse for your system. Look at your results every day. Be aware of the
slightest change. Even without sharing your system, eventually the odds
will change against you. They always do. There are
computerised algorithms being run continually over results, looking for
trends. That 's what your system is. A trend. It may
remain undiscovered for a time; a month, a year, three years but
eventually things will change, and you will have to know your system
well enough and understand the past results deeply enough to be able to
accept that change and indeed change with it. You can only stay ahead of
the game for so long. It will catch up. It always does. You just have
to remain aware and one step ahead. Time investment will allow you that
privilege
You can speculate yourselves as to
whether you think the time I have spent looking for my system has born
results or not. I'm not going to say. If I say I have, to retain any
credibility I might have I will then have to give you details of a
system and potentially kill it. If I say I have not yet found one,
you'll laugh and tell me I've wasted my time.
What I will do however, is share with
you my research for September across the various race types, age groups
and distances I am researching. I will look for some angles from the
past results, that qualify my expectation in sample size, the frequency
of runners to ensure they come regularly enough to stave off that
boredom and strike rate that is sufficiently high enough to provide a
return on investment of at least my minimum expectation with average
winners price big enough to complete the prior two tasks. I shan't be
looking for odds on winners with an 80% strike rate. Whilst still
profitable, Kudos is hard to come by when suggesting people back odds on
favourites. My favourite systems will have average starting prices of
winners at over 7/2, and preferably toward 7/1. The only problem with
the latter is that one can expect lengthy losing runs, but one winner in
7 runners is sufficient return. At 7/1 average winner starting price, I
would expect to have a losing run of anything up to 2o at a time during
the course of the system. It takes a very patient punter to sit through
20 consecutive losers and continue to throw money at the system. But
it's that punter who then hits the three consecutive 7/1 winners to
redress the balance long after the other, less patient one, has dumped
it, accepted the loss and moved on to repeat the process on the next
system, answering the original question with the number 2 answer!
I will give some pointers on past
profitable angles for September betting for you to take away and do with
what you want. I would suggest playing with it them, perhaps adding
them in to coincide with your favourite, newspaper or internet tipster
and back only when they correspond, or come up with some other extra
variable, just to give it some differentiation. I shan't track them
through the month and provide P&L, but I will pick on or two of the
basis ones and give an update at the end of the month as to their
success or failure whicever may be the case. There comes no guarantees
with this information, and I hold no responsibility for what you do with
it. Past results are just that, they do not predict with accuracy what WILL happen in the future, only what MIGHT! Try the ideas on paper first and only gamble what you can afford to lose.
If you are interested in Systematic
betting on horseracing and have not tried it previously, or were not
sure where to start, have a go. Let me know your thoughts, and without
giving the details out, tell me if they work or not. Quite often the
most successful systems are the most simple. One or two variables, and
there are thousands of combinations to be thought up, work best and keep
the interest.
If you have any ideas on systems you
might like me to check back results for, as long as the variables
coincide with what my software is capable of, I will run them back if I
think there might be something in them. If someone asks me to check all
2nd favourites in handicaps, I will refuse and confidently tell you that
it is a system that doesn't work. But give me a go. You might uncover
your very own gem.
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